Tag: S&P 500
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Day 443 of 1000: FOMO Isn’t a Substitute for an Investment Process
Sharing research findings from Allianz Bernstein about how concentrated market indexes are on the AI buildout trade. What I’m doing about it.
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Day 427 of 1000: What if the AI Payoff is Delayed?
Apollo Chief Economist Slok says we haven’t seen any payoff from AI in sectors besides the sellers of AI hardware and services. What the benefits are delayed?
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Day 413 of 1000: Running My Own Capital
Advice from X about living off the PnL of my portfolio. And upcoming risks for the U.S. stock market in the second half of the year.
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Day 409 of 1000: S&P 500 Implied Correlation Falls
S&P 500 index stocks are not moving together. Semiconductors were doing better than hyperscalers recently, echoing a pattern seen right before the dotcom crash.
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Day 352 of 1000: Revisiting the Dot Com Crash
The dot com boom went far further than most people expected, for far longer. What is going to happen with the AI boom?
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Day 293 of 1000: Surgery Week Arrives
As I approach major surgery and its aftermath at the same time I’m learning to trade, pondering the Hermit and his wisdom.
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Day 288 of 1000: Time to Be Defensive with Investments
In Mastering the Market Cycle, Howard Marks writes that calibrating between aggressiveness and defensiveness is a key decision for investors.
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Day 287 of 1000: An Alternative to Buy-and-Hold Investing
As the Middle Eastern conflict continues, equity markets around the world are looking weak. What to do instead of holding on as they fall?
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Day 284 of 1000: Expecting Lower Stock Market Returns
There are good reasons to expect that the stock market is not going to just bounce back from the Middle East conflict.
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Day 283 of 1000: Is the Market Too Complacent?
“Widespread risk tolerance… is the greatest harbinger of subsequent market declines,” says Howard Marks. Are investors too comfortable with risk right now?
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Day 281 of 1000: Identifying a Stock Market Top… or bottom
How to identify a stock market top, from William O’Neil’s How to Make Money in Stocks. Also, how to know when to get back in.
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Day 183 of 1000: Investing if there is an AI bubble
What do you do if you believe that U.S. stocks are in a bubble due to AI euphoria? Choose an equal-weight portfolio of global risk assets instead of market weight.
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DAy 133 of 1000: Establishing investment discipline
After a monthly portfolio update reflecting on investing discipline and how the next stock market crash might unfold.